Thursday, March 18, 2010

Asian Currencies Fall, Led by Won, on Intervention Risk, Greece

It etreated from a 19-month high, led by South Korea’s won and the Taiwan dollar, on speculation central banks will seek to limit appreciation that may hurt exports.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-used currencies excluding the yen, also declined after a spokesman for Germany’s ruling party said Greece should go to the International Monetary Fund if it needs aid, damping demand for riskier assets. The ringgit weakened on speculation China will tighten lending curbs to stem inflation, tempering the outlook for regional trade.

“If this kind of strength for Asian currencies continues, central banks may need to do something,” said , an economist in Singapore at United Overseas Bank Ltd. “On the European side, we have Germany coming out to say they are not in favor of having the EU help Greece. That would be another risk factor to watch out for that would favor the dollar.”

The won slid 0.5 percent to 1,133.85 per dollar at the 3 p.m. close in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.3 percent to NT$31.825, and the ringgit declined 0.4 percent to 3.3080. slipped 0.2 percent to 111.90, after yesterday posting its highest close since August 2008.

Greece has announced three sets of austerity measures this year to help allay concern it would struggle to finance a budget deficit that reached 12.7 percent of gross domestic product last year, the European Union’s highest. The risk of default helped shore up support for the in the last two months and sapped demand for emerging-market assets.

Stock Inflows

The Korean currency has strengthened 2.3 percent this month as overseas investors pumped $2.6 billion into the nation’s shares, that helped the benchmark stock index recover from a slide of as much as 7.7 percent this year. Samsung Electronics Co. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc. increased their share of the global semiconductor market last year, narrowing Intel Corp.’s lead, ISuppli Corp. said yesterday.

“A big level for the won is 1,120 through 1,130 against the dollar, and there are some rumors that the Bank of Korea has been in the market,” said , head of foreign- exchange trading at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. “The fundamentals still point to a lower dollar against Asian currencies.”

China Curbs

The ringgit slipped from near a 19-month high against the dollar on concern spending will cool in China, Malaysia’s biggest export market. China has banned loans to developers hoarding land to wait for higher prices, the China Securities Journal reported today.

“China issues are grabbing the center stage, causing market players to be a bit on the cautious side,” said , a foreign-exchange trader at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur.

The ringgit today reached 3.2920 per dollar, just shy of a 19-month high of 3.2910 set on March 12.

Taiwan’s dollar retreated from the strongest level in 18 months on speculation the central bank intervened to limit gains that may derail a recovery in exports. The monetary authority is closely monitoring overseas fund inflows, Governor Perng Fai-nan told lawmakers in Taipei yesterday.

It reached NT$31.667 earlier, the strongest level since September 2008, as global funds purchased NT$12.4 billion ($392.7 million) more local shares than they sold today.

Export Orders

“The central bank doesn’t want big fluctuations in the Taiwan dollar,” said , a fixed-income trader at Taiwan International Securities Corp. in Taipei. “It is allowing appreciation, but only a slow one.”

A Taiwan government report tomorrow may show export orders, an indication of shipments in the next one to three months, increased for a fifth month in February, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Export orders climbed 31.3 percent last month from a year earlier, after gaining a record 71.8 percent in January, according to the median estimate of economists before a government report tomorrow.

Elsewhere, Thailand’s baht was little changed at 32.31 and the Singapore dollar declined 0.2 percent to S$1.3939 versus the greenback. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1 percent to 9,125 and the Philippine peso weakened 0.2 percent to 45.69. China’s yuan were little changed at 6.8259.